Fuel prices are shaping up as a decisive issue in next week's US midterm elections, with gasoline costing $4.29 a gallon and diesel at $6.30 a gallon according to the latest figures from AAA. Compared with 2025, gasoline is up more than $1.25 a gallon while diesel prices have increased nearly 75%, creating widespread frustration among American drivers. Polls show US voters are deeply upset by high gas prices and are likely to punish Republicans as a result, with a 10 October poll by Politico indicating that even if Donald Trump were to bring gasoline prices down by $1 a gallon, most voters surveyed would not likely be swayed to vote Republican.
Trump has attempted to address the issue through several initiatives announced this month, including promoting greater use of red dye diesel normally reserved for off-highway use, temporarily lifting sanctions on Russian diesel imports, and announcing an $8bn diesel-fuel subsidy for farmers. The White House said the 24.4 cents per gallon discount on red dye diesel would save farmers and truckers about $60 on a 250-gallon fill-up. However, energy experts are sceptical these measures will have any meaningful impact before the 3 November elections. The Russia deal allows the US to import 2.24m barrels of Russian diesel, which Andrew Critchlow, head of energy news for Dow Jones Energy, noted amounts to just 14 hours of US diesel demand, whilst the global diesel market uses nearly 30m barrels a day.
Multiple factors are constraining global fuel supplies. Rob Thummel, senior portfolio manager at Tortoise Capital, explained that energy prices across the board are higher because of the US war on Iran, which closed the strait of Hormuz, through which much of the world's crude oil flows. Middle East refineries were damaged early in the conflict, Chinese refiners cannot obtain enough oil to produce extra fuel, and recent Ukrainian drone attacks have cut Russian refinery capacity. US refineries are running at maximum capacity, limiting additional production. Jay Hatfield, chief investment officer of InfraCap, warned that prices could rise further as energy demand increases in winter heating months.
For ordinary Americans, rising fuel costs are creating financial strain beyond the petrol pump. Sharie Smith, a 41-year-old resident of Toledo, Ohio, said higher fuel prices are forcing her to cut her family's budget, including reducing her children's extracurricular activities. She now pays $50 to $60 to fill up her Chevy Malibu, compared with $30 to $40 a decade ago. In Missouri, healthcare aide Lotanpa Jones, who filled up at $4.09 per gallon on 1 October according to AAA data, said the rising costs were making her consider parking her car. On 1 October, the national average price ranged from $3.15 to $3.19 per gallon according to AAA, whilst diesel stood at $3.71 a year earlier according to US Energy Information Administration data.
Energy experts say only resolving the conflicts in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine would significantly lower prices. Critchlow warned the world is in a fragile position, with many countries having depleted strategic stocks and few having released reserves. The political consequences are already visible, with Smith saying she plans to vote Democrat because Republicans are not addressing people's concerns. As the election approaches, high fuel costs appear set to influence voting behaviour, potentially reshaping the political landscape in Washington.