Inflation in the United States climbed to 3.7% in the year to September, up from 3.4% the previous month, according to figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The rise exceeded forecasts and came as gasoline prices spiked following supply disruptions in the Middle East tied to the US-Israel conflict with Iran. The figures were released ahead of midterm elections being fought partly over the cost of living.
Inflation measures how quickly the prices of goods and services increase. The Bureau of Labor Statistics tracks this through the consumer price index, which monitors price changes across hundreds of items from groceries to energy and medical services. Crude oil prices, which affect petrol costs, have risen sharply from just over $70 a barrel before the conflict to over $100 currently.
The current inflation rate remains above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, though it has fallen significantly from a peak of around 9% during and after the Covid pandemic and the 2022 Russia-Ukraine invasion. Research from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York found that US President Donald Trump's tariffs have also contributed to price pressures. The research showed that for every percentage point increase in average tariffs, consumer goods prices rose by nearly 0.25% after one year.