Voter concern about the US economy is intensifying as midterm elections draw near, with surveys showing rising pessimism even among groups historically loyal to Republicans. According to polling by Harris for The Guardian earlier this month, 38% of Republicans now believe the economy is worsening, up from 29% a year ago. The share of all Americans holding this view has also increased to 58%, compared with 48% during the final poll of the Biden administration.
Economic data shows mixed signals. Annual consumer price inflation stood at 2.3% according to the latest figures, while the unemployment rate was 4.2%. However, September's consumer price index reading recorded annual inflation of 3.7%, potentially influencing perceptions further.
Rural Americans and white voters, both traditionally Republican voting blocs, show particularly sharp shifts in sentiment. Some 64% of rural Americans polled this month said the economy was deteriorating, compared with 52% of city dwellers and only 52% during September 2024. Among white Americans, 61% now believe the economy is worsening, up from 48% two years ago.
Political scientists have documented a widening partisan gap in how Americans perceive economic conditions. Research from Stanford and New York University found the gap between Democratic and Republican economic perceptions rose from roughly 20 percentage points in the early 2000s to 73 percentage points during the first Trump administration. This polarization may explain differing voter reactions to identical economic conditions.