Nearly two-thirds of Americans believe the country is already in recession, and a majority are deeply concerned about economic deterioration just weeks before the midterm elections, according to an exclusive Harris poll for The Guardian. The survey found that 61% wrongly believe the US is currently experiencing a recession, though by standard definitions it is not. Three-quarters of those polled expressed concern about the possibility of one.
Support for Republicans is eroding among independents, a crucial voting group expected to decide key swing races. Some 65% of independents said the economy was worse, a significant rise from the 48% who held that view in September 2024. Even within Republican ranks, optimism has collapsed. In February 2025, just weeks after Donald Trump's inauguration, 39% of Republicans said the economy was improving. By the latest poll, that figure had dropped to 28%.
High prices dominate voter concerns. Two-thirds of those surveyed identified gas and grocery prices as their most pressing issues heading into November. Recent inflation data showed annualized prices increased 3.7% in September, the highest reading before a midterm election outside pandemic years since 1990. Gas prices have risen sharply since the US launched attacks against Iran, with average pump prices up more than one dollar per gallon compared with a year earlier.
Economic anxiety extends deepest among rural Americans, a traditional Republican stronghold. Four out of 10 rural residents said they were living in survival mode, where an unexpected bill could derail their finances. A vast majority of Americans, including 96% of Republicans, acknowledged an affordability crisis exists. However, voters remain divided on which party has solutions, with half of independents saying neither party does.
The Harris Poll conducted the survey online from 24 September to 3 October 2026 among 3,998 nationally representative US adults.