Nigeria's economic reforms have delivered a mixed set of outcomes with negative gaps outweighing the positives, the Nigerian Economic Summit Group said at its 32nd summit in Abuja. The group's chairman, Niyi Yusuf, told delegates that although the reforms had created a measure of stability, stabilisation alone creates conditions for progress without automatically delivering it.
Key macroeconomic indicators have improved since the reforms began three and a half years ago. Real GDP grew by 4.43 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, up from 3.89 percent in the first quarter, according to Yusuf's address. Headline inflation fell to 14.63 percent in September, a sharp decline from 34.8 percent in 2024. Gross external reserves reached approximately 55.1 billion US dollars in October 2026. However, food inflation remained stuck at 19.59 percent in September, and slower inflation does not mean prices have become affordable for households already straining under high costs.
The productive economy faces severe constraints that undermine these gains. The electricity and gas sector contracted by approximately 11.6 percent in the first half of 2026, with power generation falling from 5,400 megawatts in the fourth quarter of 2025 to 4,454 megawatts in the second quarter of 2026. Maximum lending rates stood at about 29.2 percent in August, while private-sector credit declined to 18.1 percent of gross domestic product. Foreign capital inflows reached approximately 23.2 billion US dollars so far in 2026, but portfolio investment dominated, with foreign direct investment accounting for only a small share. Public debt rose to 166.79 trillion naira in June 2026, though debt servicing moderated to about 50 percent of federal revenue.
Yusuf outlined three interdependent priorities for economic transformation: productivity, human capital and resilience. He said the next phase of reforms must prioritise lower production costs, reliable infrastructure, productive investment and more effective public spending. He called on government to sustain stability, provide essential public goods and ensure regulatory predictability, while businesses must invest in technology, skills and export competitiveness. The reforms include petrol subsidy removal, foreign exchange liberalisation, fiscal restructuring, tax reforms and banking sector recapitalisation.
For households and businesses, reform outcomes have fallen short of needs. Yusuf said that for households, reform must translate into decent jobs, greater purchasing power, improved security and reduced poverty, while for businesses it must mean lower production costs, reliable infrastructure including power, higher productivity and affordable financing. He warned that growth alone cannot tell whether enterprises are becoming more competitive or households are better off, and urged focusing on job quality, business productivity and how widely prosperity reaches people.