Nigeria cannot achieve its one trillion dollar economy target by 2030 without substantial improvements in electricity supply, productive investment and economic growth, according to the First Deputy President of the Abuja Chamber of Commerce and Industry. Adesoji Adesugba warned that without verifiable benchmarks, the trillion-dollar ambition risked becoming merely a political slogan. He proposed five interim milestones to give the target credibility: a $500 billion economy, sustained real growth of at least 6 per cent, foreign direct investment exceeding 10 per cent of capital inflows, reliable grid availability of at least 8,000 megawatts, and headline inflation in single digits.
Adesugba made the recommendations at the 20th anniversary lecture of the Commerce and Industry Correspondents Association of Nigeria in Abuja. He argued that reaching one trillion dollars by 2030 would require the economy to more than triple in dollar terms within five years, representing average annual growth of about 28 per cent in dollar terms. He noted that Nigeria's average available grid power stood at 4,758 megawatts in August 2026, which he said was inadequate to support the industrial expansion required. According to Adesugba, no economy of 220 million people has ever approached a trillion dollars on 5 gigawatts of grid power.
Current trajectory suggests a slower path to the target. Adesugba said that on current real growth of 4 to 4.5 per cent, with moderate inflation and gradual currency depreciation, Nigeria's economy would reach about 450 billion dollars by 2030 and cross the trillion-dollar mark only around 2040. If reforms accelerate, lifting real growth towards 6 or 7 per cent with a broadly stable naira, the economy would reach about 585 billion dollars by 2030 and a trillion dollars around 2034. Even under highly optimistic assumptions involving stronger growth and real exchange-rate appreciation, the economy might reach only about one trillion dollars threshold around 2032.
Adesugba also raised concerns about the quality of foreign capital flowing into Nigeria. He noted that for 2025, foreign direct investment stood at just 923 million dollars, highlighting the need to attract investors willing to establish businesses and create jobs rather than rely heavily on portfolio investments. He emphasised that portfolio capital stabilises the currency while direct investment builds factories and jobs. Adesugba identified policy continuity beyond the 2027 elections, stronger fiscal and monetary coordination, improved electricity supply, investment in special economic zones and greater collaboration with state governments as priorities for achieving the economic target.
For savers, borrowers and business owners, slower achievement of the trillion-dollar target at current growth rates means the economy's expansion to boost incomes and create employment opportunities could take longer than the 2030 deadline. Adesugba urged policymakers to publish a public dashboard showing progress against the interim milestones, arguing that credibility would depend on transparent measurement and regular reporting. He cited World Bank estimates that 63 per cent of Nigerians, or about 140 million people, were living below the national poverty line in 2025, stressing that economic expansion must ultimately improve household welfare. He called on the media to scrutinise government policies and track whether promised reforms were translating into better living conditions for citizens.