US nonfarm payrolls expanded by 165,000 jobs in October, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, significantly exceeding the forecast of 59,000 that economists polled by Dow Jones had predicted. The report revealed three unexpected drivers of the stronger-than-expected hiring that suggest different implications for the labor market going forward.
Management, scientific and technical consultant hiring surged, with the profession adding 17,300 jobs between September and October, marking the largest month-over-month increase in nearly two years. This category accounts for a quarter of the entire professional and business services sector's gains for the month. Over the past year, this workforce has grown by more than 45,000 jobs, pushing total employment in this field past 1.9 million for the first time on record. Some economists believe businesses are hiring consultants to help them adopt artificial intelligence, particularly as Gartner forecast that worldwide AI spending would total $2.7 trillion in 2026, a nearly 50% increase year over year. According to an assessment by Moody's Analytics, artificial intelligence has created a net 786,000 jobs since ChatGPT launched in November 2022, driven partly by data center construction.
Temporary worker hiring also contributed significantly to October's jobs growth, with payrolls in this subsector expanding by 18,600, one of the largest monthly increases since 2022. This category represented 27 percent of the professional and business services sector's gains. However, the timing of this hiring remains ambiguous. Economists typically view temporary hiring as a leading indicator suggesting companies plan to transition workers to permanent roles, but the boost could also reflect early holiday season staffing for the year-end shopping period. Employment in the courier and messenger category, another barometer of holiday labor demand, accounted for just over one out of every 10 new jobs in the month, suggesting seasonal hiring may be shifting earlier than historically typical.
Political campaign employment also likely contributed to October's strong payroll numbers. Employment in political organizations historically spikes heading into midterm or presidential elections, with staffing levels typically peaking in October of those years, the Bureau of Labor Statistics found. The 2026 congressional election is slated to be the most expensive midterm on record according to OpenSecrets, a money-in-politics watchdog group, suggesting campaign spending translated into additional paid positions involving door knocking, phone banking and other election-related work.
For savers and borrowers, stronger-than-expected jobs growth could support the Federal Reserve's decisions regarding interest rates and overall monetary policy direction.