Nigeria lost 3.33 million barrels of crude oil to theft during 2025, with nearly two-thirds of the losses occurring in the fourth quarter alone, according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission's 2025 annual report released on Thursday. The fourth quarter saw 2.19 million barrels stolen, almost five times the 440,434 barrels lost in the third quarter. The first quarter recorded 896,471 barrels of theft, while the second quarter showed a negative figure of 200,400 barrels, which the commission attributed to excess volumes identified during reconciliation.
The theft contributed to a significant fall in government revenue from oil and gas operations. Crude oil and gas revenue collections dropped from N12.56 trillion in 2024 to N10.42 trillion in 2025, representing a 17.03 per cent decline and a loss of N2.14 trillion. Oil and gas royalties, including Project Gazelle and National Petroleum Company receivables, fell by N2.11 trillion to N8.97 trillion, a 19.03 per cent reduction. The commission generated N10.42 trillion against a projected revenue target of N16.54 trillion, representing 63 per cent performance.
Despite the theft, Nigeria produced 541.08 million barrels of crude oil and blended condensate in 2025, with quarterly production ranging from 132.70 million to 137.69 million barrels. The country also produced 48.52 million unblended condensate barrels during the year. The losses represent crude that could have contributed to government revenue, export earnings and feedstock for domestic refineries.
Other revenue streams showed mixed performance. Gas flare penalties increased 56.27 per cent from N391.26 billion to N611.42 billion, while signature bonuses rose 44.2 per cent to N532.94 billion and concession rentals increased 61.1 per cent to N38.19 billion. However, royalty by price fell from N313.72 billion to N213.41 billion, and lease renewal receipts dropped sharply from N230.73 billion to N8.23 billion.
The persistence of crude theft occurred amid substantial security expenditure. The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited reported energy security costs of N8.67 trillion in 2025, compared with about N3.1 trillion in 2024. Beyond theft, the report documented 357 oil spill incidents during the year, with sabotage accounting for 49.5 per cent of the reported cases.
For Nigeria's government and oil-dependent economy, the combined effect of crude theft, lower revenue collection and rising security costs reduces funds available for public spending and development while straining the country's fiscal position.