Registrations of solar companies in Nigeria have surged almost sevenfold since 2019, reaching 370 new entrants last year compared with 56 six years earlier, according to analysis of the Corporate Affairs Commission register by energy think tank Ember. The boom reflects a continent-wide shift toward solar power, with Africa expected to install a record 17 gigawatts this year, up 45 percent from 2025. Nigeria is among six African countries now operating at gigawatt scale, with an estimated 1.7 GW of capacity added this year.
The economics driving the shift are straightforward. Since the government removed fuel subsidies in May 2023 and raised electricity tariffs the following year, diesel generators have become expensive alternatives to grid power. Ember's analysis shows that generating the same electricity from a diesel generator would cost as much in fuel every three months as a solar panel itself, at a diesel price of 1.40 dollars per litre, while panels typically last 30 years or more. Battery imports have also accelerated, with Nigeria importing roughly 750 million dollars of lithium-ion batteries in the 12 months through June, compared with about 275 million dollars of solar panels, suggesting households and businesses are using batteries to cover load-shedding periods.
Much of Africa's solar growth is occurring behind the meter in small-scale, distributed installations that are difficult to track through official channels. Ember estimates that 75 percent of the 26 gigawatts added across the continent from 2023 to 2025 was distributed solar. Official data significantly undercount this expansion. Ember puts Africa's 2025 installations at 12.0 gigawatts, roughly double the estimates from the International Energy Agency and the International Renewable Energy Agency. Only South Africa, Tunisia and Tanzania publish solar data monthly or quarterly, and only 14 of Africa's 54 countries report official national solar capacity figures for 2025. Company registries serve as a useful proxy for the boom, with similar surges visible elsewhere: South Africa certified 638 installation companies in 2023 alone, and Kenya's regulator licensed about six times as many solar firms in 2023-24 as in 2019-20.
The data gap carries real consequences for energy planning. Policymakers who overlook distributed solar may overestimate demand, procure unnecessary generation capacity or select the wrong mix of power sources. The African Union's Continental Power Systems Masterplan forecasts 23 gigawatts of solar by 2040, less than the 26 gigawatts Ember estimates was installed in just three years. Joel Nana, research director at the African Tech Futures Lab, described the transition as chaotic and disruptive compared with orderly national strategies. He stated in the report that distributed energy resources across Africa are rapidly expanding and in many cases overtaking grid capacity.
Nigeria's manufacturing capacity has not kept pace with demand. Ember estimates the country's 2026 solar panel output at roughly triple 2024 levels, boosted by a 200 megawatt plant run by LPV Technologies that started in January 2025. However, larger projects have stalled. Tranos broke ground on an 800 megawatt facility in June 2025 but has not yet commissioned its first production line, while a 1 gigawatt project proposed by Solarge and InfraCorp remains without construction or a site. The bulk of Africa's installed panels, 94 percent, are still imported from China. For Nigerian policymakers, the critical question is whether distributed solar assets remain a parallel system compensating for grid failures or are integrated so benefits spread more widely across the economy.
For savers and businesses in Nigeria, the shift means solar and battery systems increasingly offer cheaper alternatives to grid power or diesel generation, but relying on self-generation forces large customers to leave the utility, reducing revenue that cross-subsidizes poorer households and weakening already fragile utilities.