Uganda's economic growth targets for the 2026/27 financial year are facing challenge after the World Bank revised down its forecast. The World Bank lowered its growth projection for 2026/27 from 8.5% to 7.4%, and also reduced its estimate for the financial year that ended from 6.8% to 6.4%. The government, however, has maintained its more ambitious target of 10.2%, banking on planned investments and expected oil production to drive faster expansion.
Legislator and economist Paul Omara has questioned whether Uganda can meet its long-term growth ambitions. He noted that the government wants to double the size of the economy every five years, yet historically Uganda took roughly two decades to double its gross domestic product. Omara argued that achieving such rapid growth would require sustained high expansion, stronger domestic revenue mobilisation and timely realisation of anticipated oil revenues, alongside raising the tax-to-GDP ratio from about 13% to 20%.
Economist Allan Ssenyondwa offered a different perspective, describing the World Bank's projections as a warning rather than a final judgement on Uganda's prospects. He argued that the priority should be accelerating implementation of development plans and that Uganda could achieve faster growth if it executed its strategies with greater discipline. Ssenyondwa emphasised that economic growth must translate into jobs and production rather than relying solely on oil revenues.
The debate highlighted a fundamental tension in Uganda's economic strategy. Faster growth requires higher government revenue to finance development, yet excessive taxation can undermine business investment and household purchasing power. The broader question remains whether economic expansion will deliver tangible benefits to ordinary Ugandans through better employment, higher wages and stronger businesses.