UK retail sales growth slowed in October as shoppers held back spending in anticipation of Black Friday and Christmas discounts, according to figures from the British Retail Consortium and KPMG. Total retail sales increased by 1.5% year on year, which was above the three-month average growth rate of 1.2%. Food sales performed better, rising 3.2% compared with 3.5% the previous October, lifted by cupboard staples following Government advice for households to stock for emergencies. Halloween falling on a Saturday also boosted purchases of snacks, costumes and decorations.
Non-food sales stalled entirely, with major categories such as furniture and white goods showing weak performance as customers waited for Black Friday bargains. Clothing and footwear bucked this trend, growing in October as cooler weather arrived, while cosy essentials like duvets also saw increased purchases. BRC chief executive Helen Dickinson said retailers hope that pent-up demand will translate into stronger spending through November and December. However, she warned that shoppers and businesses face mounting costs from rising interest rates and energy bills, adding to inflationary pressures.
Separate data from Barclays revealed a more cautious picture of consumer behaviour in October. Retail spending grew just 0.5%, with clothing transactions rising 5.2% while spending in that category fell 1.8%, indicating shoppers were making more frequent but lower-value purchases. Consumer card spending grew 2.3% year on year, up from 2% in September and the highest level since July of the previous year. Essential spending rose 3.1%, driven by fuel costs climbing 22.7% after diesel passed £2 a litre for the first time.
Consumer confidence showed signs of weakening ahead of the Chancellor's Budget announcement on 28 October. Barclays found that all five of its consumer confidence measures dipped during the month. Confidence in the UK economy fell to 23% from 26% previously, while consumers' confidence in their ability to spend on non-essentials dropped to 50% from 54%. Jack Meaning, chief UK economist at Barclays, described the October figures as resilient but noted signs of growing caution, with summer economic optimism beginning to fade.
For UK households, the figures suggest that while spending remains steady, consumers are becoming more price-conscious and delaying major purchases, meaning retailers face pressure to offer value as the crucial festive trading season approaches.