Airbus's Global Market Forecast 2026 predicts that Ethiopia's origin-and-destination passenger traffic will grow nearly sixfold between 2025 and 2045. The forecast highlights Ethiopia's increasing significance in Africa's aviation sector, driven by rising demand for air connectivity, economic expansion and demographic shifts reshaping the continent's air transport market.
Across Africa, passenger traffic is expected to nearly triple over the next 20 years, expanding at an annual compound growth rate of 4.9 percent. The continent will need 1,640 new passenger aircraft by 2045, comprising 1,310 single-aisle and 330 widebody aircraft. Africa is projected to become the world's second-fastest-growing aviation market after Asia.
Demographic and economic factors are expected to drive this expansion. Africa's population is projected to increase by approximately 720 million over the forecast period, exceeding two billion by 2045. The continent's middle class is expected to grow by 180 million, while its urban population will expand by 450 million, reaching 47 percent of the total population. These changes are anticipated to increase demand for business travel, tourism and connections between major commercial centres.
For Ethiopia, sustained growth in air travel would create opportunities for airlines, airports, tourism operators and aviation-related businesses. However, meeting projected demand will require continued investment in airport capacity, fleet expansion, skilled personnel and efficient aviation services. Gabriel Semelas, president of Airbus in Africa and the Middle East, said stronger cooperation across the aviation industry would help connect communities, facilitate regional trade and create opportunities for economic growth.