International crude oil prices have surged to levels that could trigger another rise in petrol costs across Nigeria, with Brent crude climbing to $115.18 per barrel on Friday. The jump represents a 1.8 per cent increase and marks the highest level since May 4, driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East and concerns over potential disruptions to global oil supplies. United States West Texas Intermediate crude futures also gained two per cent to $101.56 per barrel during the same period.
The price rally stems from fears of renewed military conflict between the United States and Iran, alongside attacks on energy infrastructure in the region. According to reports, Houthi militants backed by Iran have launched attacks on Saudi Arabian targets, including the Shaybah oil field in the Eastern Region and King Fahd International Airport in Dammam. The drone attack on the oil field killed two people and injured two others, while the airport attack left at least two people dead and eight injured. These developments prompted the United States State Department to order non-essential personnel to leave Saudi Arabia, and Saudi Aramco to evacuate staff from its Dhahran headquarters.
Nigerian consumers and businesses already contend with elevated petrol prices following recent increases. Dangote Petroleum Refinery and other depot owners currently sell petrol at N1,350 per litre at their gantries, following an increase from N1,265 announced on September 12. Further gains in international crude prices would likely increase replacement costs for marketers and refiners, potentially leading to additional price increases passed on to consumers at the pump.
The international energy market faces heightened uncertainty as traders watch the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway through which a significant portion of global oil supplies normally passes. Disruptions to shipping through the strait and renewed attacks could further tighten supplies and increase freight and insurance costs. For Nigeria, higher crude prices directly feed into the cost of petrol supplied by domestic refiners and imported products, depending on procurement costs, refining margins and prevailing market conditions. Although no fresh price increase has been announced by refiners or importers, sustained gains in crude typically pressure domestic petrol prices upward.