The World Trade Organisation has lifted its forecast for global merchandise trade volume growth to 3.9 percent this year, nearly double the 1.9 percent projection made in March. The organisation expects growth to reach 4.1 percent next year. The faster-than-expected acceleration has been driven by strong demand for goods used in artificial intelligence infrastructure.
However, the outlook for services trade remains weaker. Commercial services trade volume is now expected to grow by 3.3 percent this year, down from an earlier forecast of 4.8 percent.
For Ethiopia and other countries dependent on imports, the accelerating global trade comes with a significant cost. Higher prices for oil and fertiliser, driven by conflict in the Middle East, are set to weigh most heavily on import-dependent economies. These rising costs for essential commodities threaten to increase the burden on businesses and households already dealing with inflationary pressures.