The Energy Information Administration has raised its forecast for US gasoline prices in 2027 by 5% compared with its previous month's projection, citing expectations that global petroleum markets will face continued supply constraints through the end of next year. The EIA, the Energy Department's independent statistical agency, now estimates retail gasoline prices will average $3.73 a gallon in 2027, up from its October forecast of $3.56 a gallon. The agency's latest projection for diesel prices in 2027 stands at $5.03 a gallon, increased from the prior forecast of $4.49 a gallon.
Despite the upward revision, consumers should still see relief at the pump in 2027 compared with 2026. The EIA expects gasoline prices to fall to $3.73 a gallon in 2027 from $3.89 a gallon this year, while diesel prices are projected to drop to $5.03 a gallon from $5.25 a gallon in 2026. The agency explained that it now assumes global petroleum markets will face continued supply constraints through the end of 2027, which will support wider petroleum crack spreads and incentivise elevated US refinery operations.
The EIA's outlook reflects global energy market dynamics that have pushed crude prices higher in recent months. Crude oil prices rose for the third consecutive month in October due to falling inventories, attacks on oil tankers in the Persian Gulf, constrained shipping capacity and higher transportation costs. The agency forecasted that Brent crude oil spot prices, expected to remain near $100 per barrel for the rest of 2026, will gradually fall to an average of $77 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2027. The EIA said its forecast anticipates that most Middle East production outside Iran will return to pre-conflict averages by the middle of next year.
For Americans managing household budgets, lower gas prices in 2027 compared with 2026 offer some relief from fuel costs, though prices will remain elevated compared with the EIA's previous month's expectations.