Nigeria is projected to record 31,400 additional heat-related deaths between September 2026 and February 2027, making it the country with the highest projected toll from El Niño, according to researchers at the University of Chicago's Climate Impact Lab. The estimate is part of a wider forecast of 66,800 additional deaths across Africa's Sahel region. This grim outlook reflects the collision of two crises: an intensifying El Niño weather pattern and Nigeria's fragile electricity supply that leaves about 92 million people without access to electricity, according to data from Sustainable Energy for All, an international organisation working with the United Nations.
The power shortage is acute and unevenly distributed across the country. Data from Nigeria's electricity distribution system showed that 11 distribution companies had a combined allocation of 3,176 megawatts as of 1 p.m. Nigerian time on October 23. Abuja Disco received the most at 575 megawatts, followed by Ikeja Disco at 467 megawatts and Eko Disco at 458 megawatts. Northern distribution companies received far less: Kano got 173 megawatts, Kaduna 167 megawatts, Jos 146 megawatts and Yola Disco, serving the north-east, just 74 megawatts. This matters because northern Nigeria experiences the most severe heat due to proximity to the Sahara Desert and low rainfall. The Nigerian Meteorological Agency recorded 41 degrees Celsius in Nguru, Yobe State, in recent days, compared to 34 degrees in Lagos.
Gas shortages compound the electricity crisis. The generators' association said supply to thermal plants is below 43 percent of daily need, while pipeline vandalism destroyed 128 transmission towers in 2024. Joy Ogaji, chief executive of the generators' association, said the problem is transmission, not generation capacity. She described the toll on small businesses: a tailor earning 4,000 naira daily can spend 3,000 naira on generator fuel. Toyosi Akinbobola, head of energy at Sofidam Capital, said the situation is dire. "Not having stable electricity during this heatwave period is very disastrous," she said.
The researchers behind the Climate Impact Lab analysis attributed Nigeria's vulnerability to poverty and inadequate power infrastructure. Michael Greenstone of the University of Chicago and Tamma Carleton of the University of California, Berkeley, noted that "much of Africa lacks the electricity needed for air conditioning" and that "poorer, hotter countries will lack the money and reliable electricity needed to protect people." They noted that more than 60 percent of Nigerians were estimated to live below the national poverty line in 2025, and even homes with electricity connections face frequent outages. The most exposed are people who work outdoors, such as farmers, traders, construction workers and commercial drivers.
The costs extend beyond household comfort. Shops must run generators longer, manufacturers face additional operating expenses, and healthcare facilities must maintain power for essential equipment and medicines requiring controlled temperatures. Celeste Saulo, Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organisation, said the current El Niño could peak toward the end of 2026, with effects lasting well beyond that. For those who can afford it, generators and solar-battery inverters provide relief, but they are expensive to buy and run. This means wealthier urban households can buy their way through a heat wave while poorer families in dense neighbourhoods and rural northern states, where temperatures are highest, cannot.
For savers and borrowers in Nigeria, the heat crisis and power shortage mean increased operating costs for businesses, higher fuel expenses for households, and rising health risks that could strain incomes and savings during the coming months.