The Rosebank oilfield can be approved without breaching the UK's emission targets, according to government insiders, in a significant development in a cabinet dispute over whether the North Sea project should proceed. The Guardian reported that energy secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh was leaning towards rejecting the project, putting her at odds with cabinet colleagues including chancellor John Healey, who are pushing for approval. Government insiders told the outlet that the project can be approved because once the oil is exported, emissions from burning it no longer count against Britain's domestic targets.
A judge ruled in 2024 that ministers should have accounted for emissions not just from drilling for oil at Rosebank but also from burning it. However, given that most of the oil will be burned abroad, the resulting emissions will not count against the UK's carbon budgets. Experts estimate that Rosebank could emit 1 million additional tonnes of carbon dioxide by 2042, against an overall limit of 90 million tonnes. Climate researcher Greg Muttitt from University College London said the government would be wrong to approve Rosebank, which would generate around seven times the emissions of the Jackdaw gasfield that was already approved. However, he acknowledged that the UK would not face international legal consequences for approval because most of the oil will be exported and so will count towards other countries' emissions.
The decision has become entangled with Treasury finances. The Guardian learned that the Treasury has already accounted for tax benefits from Rosebank, which the operating company Adura estimates would be £500 million a year by the end of this parliament. People close to the chancellor have said in recent days that he wants Fahnbulleh to approve the project, with sources indicating the Treasury would face a significant shortfall should it be rejected. The energy secretary is under an obligation to take into account Britain's commitment under the Paris agreement to prevent global temperatures rising more than 1.5 degrees Celsius.
Fahnbulleh has been forced to make a decision because of the legal judgment that the previous environmental consent was incorrectly given by the Conservative government. She approved the Jackdaw gasfield last week on grounds of national energy security but has said the same concerns do not necessarily apply to Rosebank. Her allies say she is leaning away from approval because the climate damage, while arguably not enough to violate legal limits, would not be overridden by potential benefits. Environmental groups including Greenpeace and Friends of the Earth have written to the prime minister urging him to consider the cumulative impacts of major North Sea drilling decisions rather than viewing each in isolation.
The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero said any decision would be made through the quasi-judicial process, taking into account all relevant evidence, including environmental assessments and public representations received as part of the regulatory process. Downing Street insiders insist the decision rests with Fahnbulleh, though supportive ministers have interpreted the prime minister's promise to take a pragmatic approach to oil and gas as a signal he would support approval.
For savers, borrowers, business owners and investors, approval could unlock £500 million a year in tax revenue for the Treasury but would mean the UK was not taking a leadership position on climate action, according to sources cited by the outlet.