The world has definitively entered the age of electricity and left behind the era dominated by coal, oil and gas, according to Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency. Speaking at the Cop31 UN climate summit in Turkey, Birol said more than twice as much electricity generation would be added to the global economy in the next decade compared with the last ten years. The IEA found that outside China, electric car sales have risen by 60% in the last nine months, driven by countries seeking to secure energy supplies against fossil fuel price volatility and supply shocks such as the Iran war.
Birol cited three major drivers of this shift. The first is artificial intelligence and datacentres, which require vast amounts of electricity. The second is transport electrification, with five-year-old data showing only 5% of cars sold were electric, but this year that figure is expected to reach about one-third. The third, and most significant by volume, is air conditioning. In the United States about 90% of households have access to air conditioning, but in India it is fewer than 20%, and in Nigeria about 5%. As climate change intensifies and incomes rise, Birol explained, people in warmer regions buy air conditioners at an accelerating rate.
At Cop31, governments from 185 countries are considering a resolution to derive 35% of final energy worldwide from electricity by 2035. Electricity currently fulfils about a quarter of most energy needs, while three-quarters of final energy worldwide comes from fossil fuels, mostly for transport, heating and industrial uses. According to Birol, most countries back the electrification goal, though some including Saudi Arabia and Russia are opposed. If adopted, he said the resolution would send a powerful signal to markets and investors that the future of energy lies in electricity.
Birol emphasised that even without the resolution, electrification would continue regardless because the three drivers are unstoppable. He added that electrification improves energy security because electricity can be generated domestically rather than imported as fossil fuels often are. Addressing UK energy prices specifically, Birol placed blame squarely on reliance on imported gas. He said the solution is not importing more gas but building more renewable electricity at home. Globally, electricity demand is growing three times faster than total energy demand, making affordability the critical issue for governments to address.
For UK households and businesses, electrification driven by fossil fuel reliance means that controlling energy costs depends on how quickly renewable electricity capacity can be built domestically rather than on imported fuel markets.