The Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange shed approximately 712 billion shillings in market value between September 30 and October 16, 2026, with total market capitalisation falling 1.75 per cent to 39.86 trillion shillings as bank shares led the decline. The Banks, Finance and Investment Index dropped about 3.9 per cent, while the Industrial and Allied Index gained 0.8 per cent. Three large counters dominated the market: NMB Bank, CRDB Bank and KCB Group accounted for approximately 60.5 per cent of total market capitalisation at the end of September. By October 16, CRDB had fallen 4.1 per cent to 2,830 shillings per share and NMB declined 3.9 per cent to 1,990 shillings per share. NICO also fell 5.0 per cent between October 9 and 16.
The pullback follows a sustained rally. In the 12 months to September 2026, the All Share Index rose 86.9 per cent and total market capitalisation increased 90.1 per cent, with September alone seeing the index gain 4.82 per cent. CRDB rose 11.3 per cent in that month. The October decline may reflect profit-taking by investors who accumulated shares during the rally, though determining whether current prices reflect fair value requires comparing share prices against earnings, book value and dividend distributions. CRDB's reported first-half 2026 results showed profit after tax of 417 billion shillings, up 20.3 per cent year on year, alongside growth in assets, loans and deposits, suggesting underlying business performance remains solid despite the share-price retreat.
The Tanzanian market's experience mirrors broader regional patterns across East Africa. Kenya's Nairobi Securities Exchange delivered a 51.1 per cent broad-market return in 2025, with the rally continuing into early 2026. By September, Kenya's Banking Index had retreated 4.49 per cent in a single week, KCB had fallen 7.44 per cent, and foreign investors recorded a net outflow of 2.46 billion Kenyan shillings, the second-largest weekly outflow of the year. Kenya's banking sector has traded at price-to-earnings multiples of roughly 6.8 times, with leading banks at three to five times earnings, compared to reports that NMB Bank has traded at 10 to 11 times earnings. Uganda's USE All Share Index climbed roughly 34 per cent in the 12 months to February 2026, with domestic market capitalisation rising 57.3 per cent year on year by March, though liquidity remained concentrated: MTN Uganda alone accounted for approximately 67 per cent of first-quarter 2026 turnover.
Foreign investors have been net sellers in Dar es Salaam. During the week ending October 16, their net equity sales reached approximately 1.41 million US dollars, extending a four-week streak of net selling, following net equity sales of 34.03 billion shillings in September even as the All Share Index advanced. Domestic investors absorbed that selling. Equity turnover on the DSE has weakened, with average daily turnover declining from approximately 3.60 billion shillings to 3.24 billion shillings in the weeks ending October 9 and October 16 respectively. Activity is highly concentrated: NMB and CRDB together accounted for 81.3 per cent of September equity turnover, and during the week ending October 16, CRDB alone generated approximately 8.44 billion shillings of the exchange's total 12.94 billion shillings.
The combination of bank-heavy indices, reduced foreign investor participation and concentrated trading in large counters reflects a regional repricing rather than a Tanzania-specific shock. This pattern exposes savers and investors to greater volatility when a few large bank stocks determine overall market movements, while companies outside the largest counters receive limited investment attention and trading activity. Whether current share prices have moved too far depends on comparing them against earnings growth, asset valuations and dividend prospects, a valuation assessment the material indicates remains incomplete for Tanzanian bank counters.