The United Nations Trade and Development agency projects that global economic growth will reach 2.6 percent in 2026, a decline from the expected 2.9 percent this year. Developing economies are forecast to expand by 4 percent in 2026, down from 4.7 percent in 2025, according to UNCTAD's Trade and Development Report released on Friday.
Trade in goods and services is projected to grow by roughly 4 percent at constant prices as rising energy costs push up trade values. Asia is expected to drive 59 percent of global growth, with East Asia leading expansion in semiconductor and advanced computing manufacturing.
Artificial intelligence products have emerged as the main driver of merchandise trade, though UNCTAD cautioned that growth in AI-related trade does not necessarily deliver widespread development benefits across all regions and sectors.