The UK government is considering weakening its 2030 target for electric vehicle sales from 80% of new cars to potentially as low as 50%, according to analysis seen by the Guardian that shows the decision could have major consequences for carbon emissions and living costs. The consultation on the zero emissions vehicle mandate ended on Friday. The end goal of phasing out all new petrol and diesel cars by 2035 is likely to remain, but the interim 2030 targets could be cut to 70% or even 50% of new cars, and from 70% to a lower figure for vans. Under current policy, all new cars and vans sold from 2035 must be fully electric.
The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit thinktank analysed the impact of a more drastic cut to 50% of sales. This would mean an additional 147 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent by 2030, equivalent to about 58% of the likely emissions from burning oil produced by the Rosebank oilfield west of Shetland. If the policy were weakened to allow more hybrid cars, which use both electric and combustion engines, the additional emissions would exceed the total from burning all the gas in the Jackdaw gasfield, the thinktank said.
A government spokesperson said the review was being conducted to ensure the mandate continues to support British industry and investment, with no decisions yet taken. The statement added that the end goal remains unchanged and the government is committed to its legally binding net zero targets. However, Labour MPs are deeply divided on the issue. Car manufacturers have lobbied intensively for a weakening of the targets, with some slow to retool plants for EV production and pursuing hybrid vehicles instead. By contrast, China has rapidly expanded EV manufacturing and now dominates the global market, producing about three-quarters of all EVs worldwide.
Current EV drivers in the UK present a different picture. According to polling by the Electric Vehicle Association, 94% of EV drivers reported saving money compared with petrol or diesel cars. A similar proportion said they would choose an electric vehicle for their next purchase and would recommend one to family and friends. The analysis noted that EV drivers are paying about 2.4p a mile, compared with petrol and diesel costs that have pushed a full tank to about £120. More than half of new cars sold in the UK last month were electric when hybrids are included, with about 28% being fully electric.
Jess Ralston, analyst at the ECIU, said weakening the target would not solve problems for manufacturers facing intensified competition from China, nor would it benefit the public given that EVs can be £1,750 a year cheaper to run. Chris Hinchliff, Labour MP for North East Hertfordshire, called weakening the target another setback for a livable future. Barry Gardiner, Labour MP for Brent West and former environment minister, warned that a U-turn would hurt forward-looking companies while favouring competitors who had delayed investment. He told the Guardian that clear regulation was essential for business planning and a level playing field.