Domestic airlines are expected to raise ticket prices sharply as the Christmas travel season approaches, though increased competition in the market may temper increases compared to previous years. During the 2025 Christmas season, peak fares from Lagos to South East destinations reached about N499,998 for one-way economy tickets, while return trips exceeded N700,000. In the 2024 Christmas season, prices to destinations such as Owerri ranged from N450,000 to N500,000 for single one-way economy tickets. The sharp increases occur annually as Christmas becomes Nigeria's peak travel season, with many people returning to their home regions to celebrate with family.
The rise in fares is driven partly by structural factors in Nigeria's aviation market. The Nigeria Civil Aviation Authority has registered four new airlines since 2024: Enugu Air, Binani Air, 3 Horizons Nigeria Limited and MCM Jets Limited, while newer carriers such as Xejet and ValueJet have been operating for about four years. Established airlines including Air Peace, United Nigeria Airlines, Ibom Air, ValueJet, Cally Air and Aero Contractors have also expanded their fleets. More seats in the market could help meet demand and restrain price increases. Air Peace said it has maintained the same fares since August and has received no complaints from travellers about pricing.
However, industry experts cautioned that increased competition alone will not necessarily deliver lower fares during the peak season. United Nigeria stated that while more airlines are entering the market, they cannot guarantee lower Christmas fares, since pricing is driven by demand, operational costs and travel patterns. The airline noted that Christmas travel to the South East and South South is largely one-way traffic, with planes often returning with significantly fewer passengers or operating nearly empty, a factor that must be reflected in pricing. Captain Samuel Caulcrick, a former Rector of the Nigeria College of Aviation Technology, said airlines in Nigeria face crushing systemic costs including high capital costs, heavy taxation and severe foreign exchange scarcity that establish a price floor below which carriers cannot survive operationally.
Road travel has become less attractive to passengers due to insecurity and poor infrastructure linking key regions, making air travel the preferred option for many during the festive period and amplifying demand for flights. Industry executives offered solutions to improve the situation. The Executive Secretary of the Aviation Round Table suggested airports should extend operating hours beyond 6:00 pm during peak season to enable more airlines to operate night flights, which could reduce cancellations to eastern destinations. He also welcomed the resolution of a dispute with the operators of the Murtala Muhammed Airport Terminal 2, expressing hope that additional ramp space would become available for more carriers to board passengers.
For Nigerian passengers and businesses, the competition between airlines may prevent the steepest price increases seen in previous years, but systemic cost pressures mean fares will likely remain elevated during the Christmas holiday period compared to other times of year.